Recent analysis from Canalys reveals that PC shipments surged in the first quarter of 2025, attributed to manufacturers hastening deliveries to the United States ahead of impending tariff announcements. Small to mid-sized businesses that haven’t upgraded their PCs by October 14, when mainstream support for Windows 10 concludes, might face increased costs due to these tariffs.
Shipment Growth Overview
In Q1 2025, the total shipments of desktops, notebooks, and workstations increased by 9.4%, reaching 62.7 million units. Notebooks, including mobile workstations, accounted for a significant portion of this growth, with shipments rising by 10% year-over-year to 49.4 million units. Desktops also saw an uptick, climbing by 8% to 13.3 million units.
Major Manufacturers’ Strategies
Ishan Dutt, principal analyst at Canalys, noted that Lenovo and HP ramped up shipments to the US by approximately 20% and 13%, respectively. This proactive strategy enabled manufacturers to stock up in preparation for potential cost hikes, resulting in increased sell-in shipments despite steady end-user demand.
Canalys reported that leading PC manufacturers began diversifying their supply chains during the Trump administration and are expected to continue reducing reliance on China, instead moving operations to countries like Vietnam, Thailand, and India. Despite these countries also facing tariff implications, manufacturers are looking to bolster their supply chain resilience by reshaping their shipping strategies.
Manufacturer Insights
In a statement, HP’s CEO, Enrique Lores, indicated that by the end of 2025, 90% of products sold in the US would be produced outside of China. Dell’s COO, Jeff Clarke, addressed the impact of tariffs during a recent earnings call, explaining that the company has built a resilient global supply chain capable of minimizing the effects of such trade regulations. He emphasized the importance of using digital models to optimize operations in light of potential tariff costs.
Lenovo’s chairman and CEO, Yuanqing Yang, viewed the tariffs as a potential advantage rather than a setback, citing the company’s unique ODM+ business model, which incorporates both in-house and outsourced manufacturing across 30 global facilities. Lenovo’s strategy includes a geodiversity program aimed at sourcing materials from various countries, enhancing flexibility and resilience in operations.
Future Projections and Challenges
Despite ongoing tariffs targeting major manufacturing nations, Canalys analyst Ben Yeh pointed out that their rates remain competitive compared to those imposed on China. Countries affected by tariffs are open to negotiations, increasing the likelihood of potential reductions. However, the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies may postpone significant changes in production relocation plans.
As the deadline for Windows 10 support approaches, small and mid-sized organizations may experience challenges in transitioning away from the operating system. A Canalys survey indicated that 14% of PC resellers believe their small and mid-sized business customers are unaware of the end-of-support date, while 21% acknowledge that customers are aware but have no upgrade plans. The delays in planning could result in higher costs for these organizations when they eventually refresh their PC fleets.
Canalys anticipates that the overall impact of tariffs will affect consumer demand, as the financial burden of purchasing more expensive PCs must be weighed against other rising costs.