This podcast features insights from Rainer Kaese, Toshiba’s senior manager for business development in storage, discussing the future of hard disk drives (HDDs). He believes that HDDs will remain a reliable storage option for years, primarily due to their cost-effectiveness compared to flash storage.
Cost Comparison: HDDs vs. Flash Storage
Kaese emphasizes the significant price disparity between HDDs and flash storage, noting that HDDs are approximately one-seventh the cost of flash. He argues that this cost advantage means that HDDs are likely to continue being the most economical choice for extensive data storage, making flash unsuitable for large-scale deployments in the foreseeable future.
Market Dynamics and Storage Needs
According to data from analysts, about 1 zettabyte (ZB) of HDD capacity has been manufactured, sold, and filled, compared to only 260 exabytes (EB) of SSD capacity. In enterprise and cloud storage, HDDs account for 70% to 80% of all data storage. Even if flash technology were to reach parity in cost, the existing volume of data currently stored on HDDs cannot simply be transitioned to flash due to capacity constraints.
Performance and Large-Scale Deployments
While flash offers better speed and performance, Kaese explains that HDDs meet most requirements for large data storage. He highlights that multiple HDDs can be combined to achieve adequate performance for data that is typically large and sequential, such as machine-generated data and backups. In laboratory tests, HDD systems can fully utilize network speeds, making them practical for significant storage needs.
Future Innovations in HDD Technology
Kaese anticipates that HDD technology will continue evolving, with the potential to introduce drives boasting capacities of 40TB or more. Despite the potential for higher-capacity drives, he asserts that market acceptance is crucial. To maintain competitiveness, new HDDs need to be launched at costs comparable to existing models, ensuring the price-per-terabyte remains attractive.
Long-term Viability of HDDs
Kaese forecasts that HDDs will remain a staple in data storage for at least the next decade, provided the industry can continue advancing in terms of capacity while managing to control costs. While there are possibilities for even larger drives, the actual market acceptance of these innovations will ultimately determine their viability.
In summary, despite advancements in flash storage, HDDs are positioned to remain a critical component of data storage infrastructure, especially for large-scale applications. The enduring demand for affordable, high-capacity storage solutions ensures that HDD technology will not become obsolete in the near future.